Market Research and Feasibility Study for LNG terminals in Africa

Introduction

A Feasibility Study for LNG Terminals helps investors assess demand, capacity, costs, infrastructure, and project risks. Africa's LNG market is changing quickly. New export projects are moving ahead, while import terminals are also expanding. In 2025, Africa added about 15 Mtpa of LNG regasification capacity. Egypt accounted for the full 15 Mtpa addition.

LNG terminals need strong planning from the start. Port access, storage, shipping, pipelines, customers, and regulation all affect returns. Aviaan helps investors evaluate these factors through structured market research, feasibility analysis, and financial modelling. The approach supports stronger investment decisions and practical market entry planning.

Market Overview & Industry Insights

Africa's LNG infrastructure has both export and import opportunities. Export projects remain concentrated in gas-rich markets. Import projects are gaining attention where domestic gas supply is limited. Floating storage and regasification units can also reduce upfront infrastructure needs.

• African regasification growth: Africa added about 15 Mtpa of LNG regasification capacity in 2025.
• Egypt's new capacity: Egypt added 15 Mtpa of regasification capacity in 2025 through new FSRU projects.
• Global regasification capacity: Global LNG import capacity reached about 1,055 Mtpa by the end of 2025.
• FSRU capacity: Floating import capacity reached 203 Mtpa globally by the end of 2025. This represented about 20% of global LNG import capacity.
• Nigeria LNG: Nigeria's Bonny Island LNG terminal has six operating trains with total capacity of about 1.4 Tcf per year.
• Nigeria Train 7: The seventh NLNG train has a planned capacity of about 10.9 bcm per year, with first LNG targeted for 2027 in the IEA's latest tracker.
• Mozambique LNG: Mozambique LNG is listed at about 17.5 bcm per year of nameplate capacity, with first LNG targeted for 2029.
• Coral North FLNG: Mozambique's Coral North project is designed to produce about 3.55 million tonnes of LNG per year. Production is planned for the second half of 2028.
• Morocco demand outlook: Morocco expects natural gas demand to rise from about 1 bcm to 8 bcm by 2027. The country has also pursued an LNG terminal near Nador.

The opportunity varies across South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Botswana. Coastal markets may support import terminals more easily. Landlocked markets need stronger pipeline or road logistics.

Go-To-Market Strategy

Aviaan develops LNG terminal entry strategies around demand, infrastructure, customers, and commercial structures.

• Market Entry Assessment – Identify viable LNG terminal locations and priority demand markets.
• Customer Segmentation – Map power producers, industrial users, distributors, utilities, and large commercial buyers.
• Pricing Strategy – Assess LNG costs, regasification charges, transport costs, taxes, and customer pricing.
• Competitor Benchmarking – Compare terminal capacity, tariffs, storage, utilization, and supply arrangements.
• Commercialization Planning – Develop contracting, distribution, pipeline, storage, and implementation strategies.

Feasibility Study for LNG Terminals

Aviaan evaluates LNG terminal projects through commercial, technical, operational, and financial analysis.

• Demand Assessment – Forecast LNG demand from power, industry, commercial users, and other priority sectors.
• Technical Feasibility – Assess FSRU, onshore storage, regasification systems, jetties, pipelines, and utilities.
• Operational Feasibility – Review marine access, unloading schedules, storage operations, maintenance, and staffing.
• Financial Viability – Model CAPEX, OPEX, tariffs, revenues, cash flows, and project returns.
• Investment Analysis – Test IRR, NPV, payback, debt capacity, and investor return scenarios.
• Risk Assessment – Test shipping, FX, LNG price, demand, construction, safety, and regulatory risks.
• Decision Support – Convert technical and commercial findings into clear investment recommendations.

A key consideration is terminal utilization. Global LNG import terminals averaged only about 41% utilization in 2025. This makes demand forecasting critical before investing in new capacity.

Market Research for LNG Terminals

Aviaan combines market intelligence with targeted industry research. The objective is to establish realistic demand and commercial assumptions.

• Customer Analysis – Identify major gas buyers and estimate their LNG requirements.
• Competitor Intelligence – Benchmark existing and planned terminals across African markets.
• Market Sizing – Calculate addressable LNG demand by country, industry, and customer segment.
• Demand Forecasting – Develop base, upside, and downside demand scenarios.
• Pricing Analysis – Assess LNG prices, shipping costs, regasification tariffs, and pipeline charges.
• Supply Chain Research – Review ports, shipping routes, pipelines, storage, and distribution networks.
• Opportunity Identification – Locate underserved markets and potential terminal development zones.

This research is especially useful where domestic gas supply is limited. It also helps determine whether an FSRU or onshore terminal offers the stronger commercial model.

Business Plan for LNG Terminals

Aviaan prepares business plans that connect market evidence with project economics.

• Financial Modelling – Build integrated CAPEX, OPEX, revenue, financing, tax, and cash-flow models.
• Revenue Projections – Forecast income from regasification, storage, handling, and related services.
• Operational Planning – Define terminal capacity, staffing, maintenance, marine operations, and utilities.
• Funding Strategy – Assess equity, project debt, strategic investors, and development finance options.
• Growth Planning – Develop expansion plans linked to demand, utilization, customer contracts, and infrastructure.

Long-term customer contracts can be important for bankability. They can also reduce exposure to demand volatility.

How Aviaan Uses Primary Research

Public data gives the project its starting point. Primary research helps validate the assumptions.

Aviaan can conduct interviews with utilities, power producers, industrial customers, shipping companies, port operators, pipeline companies, suppliers, and regulators.

Field research can also assess port conditions and nearby infrastructure. Competitor checks can reveal actual pricing and service structures.

These findings improve the demand model. They also help identify operational barriers before financial commitments are made.

For example, a terminal may have sufficient storage capacity but weak pipeline connectivity. Primary research can identify this gap early.

Our Experience & Credentials

LNG terminal consulting requires strong commercial, infrastructure, and financial analysis. Aviaan's approach can combine market research, feasibility studies, financial modelling, and investment analysis. The following are representative LNG terminal assignment types. They do not disclose confidential client information.

• LNG Terminal Market Research – Egypt – Assess import demand, terminal capacity, customer segments, and competitive infrastructure.
• LNG Terminal Feasibility Study – Ghana – Evaluate technical requirements, demand, marine logistics, investment costs, and commercial viability.
• LNG Infrastructure Business Plan – South Africa – Develop market forecasts, customer strategy, operating assumptions, and funding requirements.
• LNG Terminal Financial Model – Morocco – Model CAPEX, operating costs, tariffs, utilization, cash flows, and project returns.
• LNG Investment Advisory – Nigeria – Assess terminal expansion opportunities, supply risks, customer demand, and investment scenarios.

Conclusion

A Feasibility Study for LNG Terminals is essential before committing capital to LNG infrastructure. The study must connect demand with physical infrastructure and project economics.

South Africa requires careful analysis of import infrastructure and industrial gas demand. Nigeria has a mature LNG export base, with Bonny Island operating six trains. Kenya needs a close review of import economics and coastal infrastructure.

Egypt has become an important LNG import market. It added 15 Mtpa of regasification capacity in 2025. Morocco is developing LNG infrastructure as gas demand rises. Ghana can benefit from LNG infrastructure linked to power and industrial demand.

Ethiopia and Uganda need careful analysis of land-linked gas logistics. Tanzania has strategic coastal advantages and domestic gas resources. Zambia needs a strong regional supply-chain assessment. Côte d’Ivoire has growing gas infrastructure and regional energy relevance. Botswana requires detailed analysis of import routes and downstream demand.

The right terminal model depends on capacity, utilization, LNG supply, shipping, infrastructure, tariffs, and customer contracts. Aviaan can help investors test these factors before making major commitments. Contact Aviaan for a structured LNG terminal feasibility assessment.

FAQs

1. Why is a feasibility study important for an LNG terminal?

It tests whether the terminal can operate commercially. It covers demand, infrastructure, costs, financing, risks, and expected returns.

2. What does an LNG terminal feasibility study include?

It can include market research, technical analysis, port assessment, demand forecasting, CAPEX analysis, financial modelling, risk analysis, and investment recommendations.

3. Is an FSRU better than an onshore LNG terminal?

It depends on project requirements. FSRUs can reduce construction time and upfront infrastructure needs. Onshore terminals may offer greater long-term storage flexibility.

4. How much does an LNG terminal feasibility study cost?

The cost depends on project size, location, terminal type, research scope, and modelling requirements. A detailed project scope is needed before pricing.

5. Which African countries should investors consider for LNG terminal projects?

Potential markets include Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, Morocco, Ghana, Tanzania, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and other emerging gas markets. Each requires separate feasibility analysis.

Related Service Pages

• Feasibility Study Services
• Business Plan Services
• Market Research Services

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