Market Research and Feasibility Study for Shopping Centres in Africa

A Feasibility Study for Shopping Centres helps investors test demand, site potential, tenant economics, development costs, and expected returns before committing significant capital. Africa's retail property market is becoming more diverse. Modern malls now compete with neighbourhood centres, mixed-use developments, convenience formats, and digital commerce. Knight Frank reports that more than 95% of the African real estate markets it tracks had recovered to pre-pandemic levels by 2024/25. Retail is also shifting toward experiential destinations and mixed-use projects.

However, shopping centre investment remains highly location-specific. Aviaan supports investors and developers with structured feasibility study and market research solutions that test commercial assumptions before development decisions are made. The analysis can compare opportunities across South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Botswana. This approach helps investors understand whether a proposed centre can attract shoppers, secure suitable tenants, manage costs, and generate sustainable returns.

Market Overview & Industry Insights

Africa's shopping centre market offers opportunities, but performance varies sharply by city, format, and catchment. Large malls can benefit from strong anchors and entertainment. Smaller centres can succeed through convenience and proximity. Therefore, investors need location-level evidence rather than continent-wide assumptions.

• 200,000 m²: Morocco Mall in Casablanca was Africa's largest shopping centre by floor area in 2024. Fourways Mall in South Africa had about 178,000 m², while Menlyn Park had about 174,000 m².
• 4.6% vacancy: South African shopping centre vacancy averaged 4.6% in Q4 2024, compared with about 4% before the pandemic. Vacancy ranged from 3.9% for super-regional centres to 6.1% for small regional centres.
• 217,000 m²: South Africa completed approximately 217,000 m² of shopping centre space in 2024. About 380,000 m² was expected from 22 projects in 2025.
• R7.5 billion: Retail investment in South Africa reached R7.5 billion in 2024, representing 30% of total investment volume and a 13% year-on-year increase.
• 99.9% occupancy: Sandton City reported 99.9% occupancy in October 2025, alongside 12.1% growth in trading density over two years.
• 0.31 m² per person: An earlier cross-market analysis found average shopping centre space per capita across nine African markets at 0.31 m². Lagos was only 0.01 m², while Gaborone reached 1.3 m².
• Multiple formats: Knight Frank identifies expansion in shopping malls, neighbourhood retail, mixed-use projects, and experiential retail as important African market themes.

These figures show why a single African retail model cannot work everywhere. For example, established centres in South Africa require careful competitive positioning. Meanwhile, markets such as Uganda continue to experience formal retail expansion, with Kampala and Entebbe developing more leisure-focused shopping experiences.

Go-To-Market Strategy

Aviaan develops the commercial strategy around the proposed centre's catchment, tenant economics, positioning, and investment objectives. The focus is on creating a realistic route from development approval to stable occupancy.

• Shopping Centre Positioning – Define the centre's customer proposition, anchor strategy, retail mix, entertainment offer, and competitive advantage.
• Tenant Strategy – Identify anchor tenants, national brands, local retailers, food operators, services, and complementary categories.
• Pricing Strategy – Benchmark rents, service charges, incentives, parking economics, and tenant affordability against competing centres.
• Catchment Strategy – Map primary and secondary trade areas, customer movements, competitor locations, accessibility, and traffic generators.
• Commercialisation Plan – Establish leasing priorities, launch activities, marketing channels, occupancy targets, and implementation milestones.

Feasibility Study for Shopping Centres

Aviaan evaluates the commercial viability of a proposed centre by linking market evidence with development economics. The analysis moves from demand validation to investment decision-making.

• Demand Assessment – Measure catchment demand, shopper profiles, spending patterns, visit frequency, competing supply, and unmet retail needs.
• Site Feasibility – Assess accessibility, visibility, surrounding development, traffic flows, parking potential, utilities, land constraints, and future competition.
• Technical Feasibility – Review development scale, gross leasable area, building configuration, infrastructure requirements, and expansion potential.
• Operational Feasibility – Test tenant mix, anchor requirements, property management costs, security, maintenance, parking, and facility operations.
• Financial Viability – Build revenue and cost models covering rents, occupancy, operating expenses, development costs, financing, and cash flows.
• Investment Analysis – Assess project IRR, NPV, payback period, sensitivity scenarios, debt capacity, and potential exit values.
• Risk Assessment – Stress-test construction costs, delays, vacancy, rent assumptions, tenant incentives, currency movements, and changing consumer behaviour.

The final business feasibility report should make the investment decision clearer. It should identify which assumptions need further validation and which risks require mitigation before capital is committed.

Market Research for Shopping Centres

Aviaan combines secondary research with structured market intelligence to identify where and how a shopping centre can compete. The research focuses on evidence that directly affects tenant demand and project economics.

• Customer Analysis – Segment shoppers by income, lifestyle, shopping mission, location, age, and preferred retail categories.
• Competitor Intelligence – Compare nearby malls using tenant mix, occupancy, rents, footfall, anchors, parking, entertainment, and customer experience.
• Market Sizing – Estimate addressable retail demand and compare it with existing and planned gross leasable area.
• Demand Forecasting – Model future tenant and shopper demand using catchment development, competing supply, and retail trends.
• Pricing Analysis – Benchmark rental levels, incentives, service charges, and occupancy costs across comparable centres.
• Supply Chain Research – Examine logistics access, retailer distribution requirements, local supplier networks, and import dependencies.
• Opportunity Identification – Locate underserved categories such as grocery, healthcare, food and beverage, entertainment, services, or convenience retail.

This research helps investors distinguish genuine market gaps from attractive-looking locations that already face excessive competition.

Business Plan for Shopping Centres

Aviaan converts feasibility findings into an investor-focused business plan. The financial model connects development assumptions with operating performance and funding requirements.

• Financial Modelling – Build integrated development, operating, debt, cash flow, and return models.
• Revenue Planning – Forecast rental income, service charges, parking, advertising, temporary leasing, and other centre revenues.
• Cost Planning – Model land, construction, professional fees, financing, utilities, maintenance, security, marketing, and management costs.
• Funding Strategy – Evaluate equity, debt, development finance, joint ventures, and phased investment structures.
• Implementation Roadmap – Establish development phases, leasing milestones, pre-opening activities, operating readiness, and growth priorities.

Scenario analysis is particularly important. For example, the model can test how a 10% increase in development costs or slower occupancy changes project returns.

How Aviaan Uses Primary Research

Primary research strengthens a shopping centre feasibility study because published market data may not reveal the reasons behind local shopping behaviour. Aviaan can therefore combine field evidence with financial analysis.

Surveys can measure shopper preferences, preferred brands, travel distance, spending patterns, and willingness to visit a new centre. Interviews with retailers can reveal realistic rental expectations and preferred locations. Expert discussions can add insight into planning, development, leasing, and property management conditions.

Furthermore, competitor visits and retail audits help assess actual tenant quality, customer experience, parking performance, footfall patterns, promotions, and centre positioning. Supplier discussions can also reveal construction and operating cost pressures.

This process gives investors a stronger evidence base. Instead of relying only on market reports, the investment model reflects conditions observed in the proposed market.

Our Experience & Credentials

Aviaan's sector-focused consulting approach combines market research, feasibility analysis, financial modelling, and commercial strategy for shopping centre investments. The work is designed around practical investment questions, including demand, tenant economics, development risk, project returns, and long-term positioning.

• Shopping Centre Feasibility Study – South Africa – Evaluated retail demand, competitive supply, tenant mix, development assumptions, and project-level financial viability.
• Retail Market Research – Nigeria – Assessed catchment demand, competitor positioning, retailer categories, rental benchmarks, and market-entry opportunities.
• Shopping Centre Business Plan – Kenya – Developed revenue assumptions, operating projections, funding scenarios, and an implementation roadmap.
• Commercial Due Diligence – Egypt – Reviewed market positioning, tenant economics, development risks, and investment assumptions for a proposed retail asset.
• Investment Strategy – Ghana – Assessed retail positioning, customer segments, financial scenarios, and strategic options for a proposed shopping centre development.

Conclusion

A Feasibility Study for Shopping Centres should do more than estimate market demand. It should connect location, catchment characteristics, tenant requirements, development costs, rental assumptions, financing, operating expenses, and investment returns into one decision framework.

The opportunity is not identical across Africa. South Africa has a mature shopping centre ecosystem with measurable investment and occupancy data. Nigeria requires careful attention to location and convenience-led formats. Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Botswana each require market-specific analysis before investment decisions are made.

Therefore, investors should validate demand before finalising land acquisition or construction plans. A strong feasibility study can expose weak assumptions early, improve financial projections, and support stronger negotiations with lenders, partners, tenants, and investors.

If you are assessing a new shopping centre, expansion, redevelopment, or market entry opportunity, contact Aviaan for a structured feasibility study, market research, and investment assessment tailored to your project.

FAQs

What should a feasibility study for shopping centres include?

It should assess catchment demand, site suitability, competitive supply, tenant mix, development costs, operating expenses, rental potential, financing, risks, and projected investment returns.

How much does a shopping centre feasibility study cost?

The cost depends on project size, location, research depth, site complexity, financial modelling requirements, and the number of markets assessed. A detailed scope should be prepared before pricing the assignment.

Which African markets are attractive for shopping centre development?

There is no single best market. South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Uganda, Tanzania, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, and Botswana have different retail structures and investment conditions. Site-level research should determine the strongest opportunity.

How does market research improve shopping centre investment decisions?

Market research helps validate customer demand, competitor intensity, rental levels, tenant requirements, retail gaps, and future supply. This reduces reliance on assumptions in the financial model.

Can Aviaan prepare financial projections for a shopping centre?

Yes. Aviaan can develop project-level financial models covering development expenditure, rental income, occupancy, operating costs, financing, cash flow, profitability, IRR, NPV, sensitivity analysis, and investment scenarios.

Related Service Pages

• Feasibility Study Services
• Business Plan Services
• Market Research Services

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