Market Research and Feasibility Study for Shopping malls in Africa

Introduction

A Feasibility Study for Shopping Malls helps investors assess demand, location, tenants, costs, competition, and returns. Africa's retail market remains diverse, with formal retail expanding in selected urban centres. The wider African retail market was valued at about USD 845.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1.276 trillion by 2031, according to 6Wresearch.

Shopping mall development is also changing. Developers increasingly favour neighbourhood and community formats over very large destination malls. Recent retail data from East Africa shows stronger demand for convenient, proximity-led centres. Aviaan helps investors assess mall opportunities through market research, feasibility analysis, financial modelling, and business planning.

Market Overview & Industry Insights

Africa's mall sector offers opportunities in major cities and growing suburban catchments. However, consumer purchasing power, tenant performance, online retail, construction costs, and existing supply can affect returns. Location and tenant mix are therefore critical.

• African retail market: The wider African retail market was valued at USD 845.2 billion in 2024 and is forecast to reach USD 1.2763 trillion by 2031, representing a 6.0% CAGR.
• Largest African mall: Morocco Mall measured about 200,000 m² of retail floor area in 2024, making it Africa's largest shopping centre by floor area.
• South Africa supply: Gauteng was expected to account for 43% of South Africa's new shopping-centre supply in 2025.
• South African development: Soshanguve Mall's second phase was planned at approximately 55,000 m² in 2025.
• Kenya pipeline: At least 7 retail developments representing about 575,000 sq. ft. were under development, with completion expected between 2025 and 2027.
• Kenya retail expansion: Carrefour reached 34 stores in Kenya by December 2025, while Naivas reached 113 stores.
• Kampala footfall: Average footfall across Knight Frank-managed Kampala malls increased 15% year-on-year in H2 2025.
• Kampala occupancy: Average occupancy across Knight Frank-managed malls increased only 1% in H2 2025, suggesting strong occupancy levels in established centres.
• Lagos retail rents: Prime Lagos retail rents were reported at about USD 25 per m² per month in H2 2025.
• East Africa retail space: Knight Frank's managed East African portfolio covered about 126,122 m² of prime retail space in its H2 2025 market review.

The opportunity differs across South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Botswana.

Each market needs city-level research. National retail figures alone cannot validate a mall project.

Go-To-Market Strategy

Aviaan develops market-entry strategies around catchment areas, consumer segments, tenant demand, pricing, and mall positioning.

• Market Entry Assessment – Identify high-potential cities, catchments, locations, and mall formats.
• Customer Segmentation – Map households, income groups, students, professionals, tourists, and business customers.
• Pricing Strategy – Benchmark rents, service charges, parking fees, promotional costs, and tenant incentives.
• Competitor Benchmarking – Compare competing malls, tenant mixes, occupancy, footfall, amenities, and positioning.
• Commercialization Planning – Develop leasing, anchor-tenant, marketing, launch, and occupancy strategies.

Feasibility Study for Shopping Malls

Aviaan evaluates mall projects through commercial, property, operational, and financial analysis.

• Demand Assessment – Measure catchment population, spending patterns, footfall potential, and retail demand.
• Location Feasibility – Assess accessibility, transport, visibility, competing centres, land use, and future development.
• Tenant Feasibility – Identify anchor tenants, fashion brands, supermarkets, restaurants, entertainment, and service businesses.
• Operational Feasibility – Assess parking, security, cleaning, utilities, maintenance, facility management, and technology.
• Financial Viability – Model development CAPEX, rental income, occupancy, operating costs, financing, and cash flow.
• Investment Analysis – Test NPV, IRR, development yield, payback period, and exit values.
• Risk Assessment – Evaluate construction, tenant, consumer spending, financing, regulatory, and competitive risks.

A mall should be designed around its catchment. Oversized developments can create unnecessary capital pressure when local demand is limited.

Market Research for Shopping Malls

Aviaan combines property intelligence with detailed consumer and tenant research.

• Consumer Analysis – Study shopping frequency, spending categories, preferred locations, brands, and entertainment needs.
• Catchment Research – Define primary, secondary, and tertiary catchment areas.
• Competitor Intelligence – Benchmark nearby malls, retail streets, supermarkets, lifestyle centres, and mixed-use projects.
• Market Sizing – Estimate retail spending potential and realistic leasable demand.
• Demand Forecasting – Model footfall, tenant demand, occupancy, and future competition.
• Pricing Analysis – Compare retail rents, service charges, parking fees, and tenant incentives.
• Opportunity Mapping – Identify underserved locations, retail categories, and consumer segments.

Recent East African data shows a shift toward neighbourhood malls. This reflects stronger demand for convenience and proximity.

Business Plan for Shopping Malls

Aviaan develops investor-ready business plans that connect property development with long-term rental performance.

• Financial Modelling – Build CAPEX, OPEX, rental income, financing, taxes, and cash-flow models.
• Revenue Projections – Forecast base rent, turnover rent, parking, advertising, kiosks, and other income.
• Operational Planning – Define property management, security, maintenance, utilities, marketing, and tenant services.
• Funding Strategy – Assess equity, construction finance, institutional capital, REIT structures, and strategic investors.
• Growth Planning – Develop expansion, redevelopment, tenant repositioning, and asset-management strategies.

The financial model should test occupancy stress scenarios. It should also account for rent-free periods and tenant incentives.

How Aviaan Uses Primary Research

Shopping mall feasibility depends on real customer and tenant behaviour. Public data provides only part of the picture.

Aviaan can survey consumers about shopping habits, preferred brands, spending categories, transport preferences, and entertainment demand.

Tenant interviews can assess expansion plans, preferred locations, rent expectations, and store formats. Discussions with supermarket operators can also help validate anchor-tenant potential.

Aviaan can conduct competitor visits and retail audits. These can assess footfall, tenant mix, parking utilisation, promotions, vacancies, and customer experience.

Location audits can further assess traffic patterns and accessibility. These findings improve demand forecasts and tenant planning.

Our Experience & Credentials

Shopping mall projects require expertise across retail research, property feasibility, financial modelling, and investment strategy. Aviaan can combine these capabilities to evaluate retail development opportunities. The following are representative assignment types and do not disclose confidential client information.

• Shopping Mall Market Research – South Africa – Assess catchment demand, tenant opportunities, competitor centres, rents, and retail category gaps.
• Retail Centre Feasibility Study – Kenya – Evaluate location, footfall potential, leasable area, tenant mix, development costs, and investment returns.
• Shopping Mall Business Plan – Nigeria – Develop leasing strategy, occupancy forecasts, operating plans, financial projections, and funding requirements.
• Retail Development Financial Model – Ghana – Model construction CAPEX, rental income, occupancy, operating costs, financing, and project returns.
• Shopping Centre Investment Advisory – Tanzania – Assess retail demand, competing supply, tenant opportunities, commercial risks, and expansion scenarios.

Conclusion

A Feasibility Study for Shopping Malls helps investors determine whether a retail development can achieve sustainable occupancy and returns. It connects consumer demand with location, mall size, tenant mix, pricing, and development costs.

South Africa has one of Africa's most established formal retail markets. Nigeria offers opportunities in major urban centres, although consumer purchasing power and operating costs require careful analysis. Kenya is seeing continued retailer expansion and new neighbourhood retail development.

Egypt offers opportunities in large urban and mixed-use developments. Morocco has a mature modern retail segment and hosts Africa's largest mall by floor area. Ghana can support retail projects in major urban catchments.

Ethiopia is gradually formalising its retail sector. Tanzania offers opportunities for neighbourhood and convenience-led centres. Uganda has recorded stronger mall footfall, while established centres show high occupancy.

Zambia can offer opportunities around growing urban retail catchments. Côte d’Ivoire has potential for modern retail in Abidjan. Botswana offers a smaller but established formal retail environment.

The strongest projects will not simply maximise floor area. They will optimise tenant mix, accessibility, customer experience, and occupancy.

Aviaan can help investors assess retail demand, location, tenant strategy, development economics, and investment returns. Contact Aviaan to develop a practical feasibility study for your shopping mall project.

FAQs

1. Why is a feasibility study important for a shopping mall?

It tests retail demand, location, competition, tenant demand, development costs, occupancy, risks, and expected returns.

2. What does a shopping mall feasibility study include?

It can include catchment analysis, consumer research, competitor benchmarking, tenant research, site assessment, financial modelling, and investment analysis.

3. Which African countries offer shopping mall opportunities?

Potential markets include South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt, Morocco, Ghana, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Côte d’Ivoire, and Botswana. City-level research remains essential.

4. What determines shopping mall profitability?

Key drivers include occupancy, rental rates, tenant mix, footfall, development costs, operating expenses, financing, parking income, and additional commercial revenue.

5. How much does a shopping mall feasibility study cost?

The cost depends on project size, location, research scope, mall format, financial modelling requirements, and development complexity.

Related Service Pages

• Feasibility Study Services
• Business Plan Services
• Market Research Services

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